Half-year review · no. 1 · H2 2026
The briefing for the network's companies, twice a year
Three economies are running — Poland, North Macedonia, Bulgaria — two are nearly still, Hungary and Romania, and one of these two, Romania, adds stagnation to by far the highest inflation. Two facts change how business works in the area: Bulgaria has been in the euro since 1 January 2026 — currency risk is gone for those invoicing — and Hungary has regained access to EU funds after the unblocking of €16.4bn.
Real GDP growth, 2025 on 2024. Albania: 2025 figure not yet published. Source: Eurostat, tec00115, extracted 17.09.2026.
Harmonised inflation (HICP), annual rate, July 2026. Source: Eurostat, prc_hicp_minr (ECOICOP ver.2), extracted 17.09.2026.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, July 2026. Serbia and Albania: monthly series not available. Source: Eurostat, une_rt_m, extracted 17.09.2026.
The combination that matters is growth × prices: Poland grows with quiet prices (a market to hold), Romania stagnates with prices running (domestic demand under pressure), and the candidate Balkans grow above the EU average with the labour that is missing elsewhere — North Macedonia's 11.0% unemployment is, read from the company's side, available workforce.
Each card brings together the numbers, a reading, and the cases the LIMEN Observatory documents in the country — with one line on what they mean for those doing business there.
Growth halved from the previous two years (from 3.9 to 2%): the shock of the NIS sanctions and energy uncertainty are reaching the real economy.
Every case is documented by the Observatory with its sources; where an unproven allegation stands, the entry says so. The established fact is never blurred with suspicion.
Zijin Mining acquired 63% of RTB Bor in 2018; in September 2023 it announced a further expansion worth around $3.8 billion.
Sources: Balkan Insight 2024 · RFE/RL 2024
For the company — A copper supply chain in the hands of a Chinese group facing documented environmental disputes: suppliers entering it should budget for environmental due diligence.
A plant worth around €800 million; production began in September 2024. In December 2024 US customs blocked imports of its tyres over forced labour.
Sources: RFE/RL 2024 · BHRRC 2024
For the company — The US customs ban on its tyres touches anyone who has it in their supply chain and exports to the United States.
A 99-year lease was signed; the project was withdrawn by Affinity on 15 December 2025 after indictments.
Sources: Bloomberg 2025 · RFE/RL 2025
For the company — The project's withdrawal after forgery indictments is a signal about procedural risk in the public real-estate market.
US sanctions in force since 9 October 2025; the Pančevo refinery suspended production in December 2025; deadline for the sale of the Russian stake in February 2026.
Sources: Al Jazeera 2025 · Balkan Insight 2025
For the company — Anyone buying fuel or supplying the oil industry has a counterparty under US sanctions: the check to run is contractual exposure, not price.
In 2025 TurkStream remained the only entry point for Russian pipeline gas into the EU, with record volumes (16.8 billion cubic metres); Serbia extended its contract until March 2026.
Sources: Balkan Insight 2025 · S&P Global 2026
For the company — Single-route gas supply: continuity plans and interruption clauses weigh more than the price list.
March 2024: leaked documents reveal the expansion of the Huawei system.
Sources: RFE/RL 2025 · EDRi 2021
For the company — For anyone handling data or working with the Serbian public administration: biometric surveillance without an established legal basis is a compliance issue.
HBIS (formerly HeSteel) bought the steelworks in 2016 for 46 million euros, saving around 5,000 jobs. In 2024, the Belgrade Commercial Court fined the Serbian subsidiary for air pollution: one million dinars, approximately 8,500 euros.
Sources: SeeNews 2024 · Balkan Green Energy News 2024 · Just Finance International 2025
For the company — Importers of Serbian semi-finished steel fall inside the CBAM perimeter: emissions certification adds to the price, and this plant's environmental data are not public.
A project worth around 2.8 billion dollars, 85 per cent of which is financed by a 20-year fixed-rate loan from China. The Hungarian section between Budapest and Kelebia reopened to freight on 27 February 2026 after four years of construction; passenger services, originally expected in March, have been postponed until autumn 2026 pending the completion of the ETCS control system. By April 2026, the line was being served by around six freight trains a day.
Sources: International Railway Journal 2020 · Reuters 2020 · Telex / G7 2026
For the company — The corridor towards Piraeus exists but runs at six freight trains a day: intermodal logistics should plan on real transit times, not nominal capacity.
A third year of near-zero growth, but inflation is easing and €16.4bn in EU funds are unlocked: 2026 is the year that shows whether the European return becomes a recovery.
Every case is documented by the Observatory with its sources; where an unproven allegation stands, the entry says so. The established fact is never blurred with suspicion.
An investment of around €7.3 billion for a 100 GWh plant; the main structure is complete, with series production due to start in early 2026.
Sources: Balkan Insight 2023 · Euronews 2024 · CnEVPost 2025
For the company — For Debrecen's supply chain the gigafactory is at once a competitor for labour and a potential client; environmental appeals are ongoing.
An investment of up to around €4 billion; trial production began in early 2026, with full series production expected in the second quarter of 2026.
Sources: Euronews 2023 · electrive 2026
For the company — Trial production under way: a new door for Italian automotive components, inside the framework of EU tariffs.
Under construction: first concrete poured for unit 5 in February 2026; on 11 September 2025 the EU Court of Justice annulled the approval of the state aid.
Sources: Balkan Green Energy News 2026 · OSW 2025
For the company — Suppliers to the site face an uncertain financing picture after the state-aid annulment: a payment risk, not a construction one.
In 2025 TurkStream remained the only entry point for Russian pipeline gas into the EU, with record volumes (16.8 billion cubic metres); Serbia extended its contract until March 2026.
Sources: Balkan Insight 2025 · S&P Global 2026
For the company — Single-route gas supply: continuity plans and interruption clauses weigh more than the price list.
A project worth around 2.8 billion dollars, 85 per cent of which is financed by a 20-year fixed-rate loan from China. The Hungarian section between Budapest and Kelebia reopened to freight on 27 February 2026 after four years of construction; passenger services, originally expected in March, have been postponed until autumn 2026 pending the completion of the ETCS control system. By April 2026, the line was being served by around six freight trains a day.
Sources: International Railway Journal 2020 · Reuters 2020 · Telex / G7 2026
For the company — The corridor towards Piraeus exists but runs at six freight trains a day: intermodal logistics should plan on real transit times, not nominal capacity.
The network's anomaly: inflation at 8.2%, by far the highest — almost double Bulgaria's, the runner-up — with growth nearly flat. For those selling into the domestic market, demand is under pressure.
Every case is documented by the Observatory with its sources; where an unproven allegation stands, the entry says so. The established fact is never blurred with suspicion.
On 6 December 2024 the Constitutional Court annulled the first round; new elections in May 2025 were won by the pro-European Nicușor Dan.
Sources: Al Jazeera 2024 · The Washington Post 2024
For the company — An annulled and repeated vote is a precedent: the variable is the regulatory instability that follows.
The container terminal concession was extended in 2019 until 2049; in 2022, an agreement between the Romanian government and DP World/PCFC for new infrastructure.
Sources: The National 2022 · PortsEurope 2019
For the company — Black Sea logistics run through a single operator until 2049: access conditions are better negotiated now than later.
2019 purchase of Agricost; EU subsidies collected up to 2026.
Sources: Middle East Eye 2024 · DeSmog 2026
For the company — In agri-food, member companies compete with a sovereign-capital operator drawing on the same CAP subsidies.
In the euro since 1 January 2026: currency risk is gone for those invoicing in lev. Solid growth (3.1%) and unemployment at 3.6%, among the lowest in the network.
Every case is documented by the Observatory with its sources; where an unproven allegation stands, the entry says so. The established fact is never blurred with suspicion.
State-control law and special administrator, November 2025.
Sources: France 24 (AFP) 2025 · The Moscow Times 2025
For the company — Fuel under a special administrator: the contractual counterpart changes while the company stays the same.
September 2024: the European Commission approves the purchase with conditions under the FSR.
Sources: Commissione europea 2024
For the company — The telecoms of four network countries have passed to e& under EU-imposed conditions: connectivity contracts are worth rereading at renewal.
The locomotive: 3.6% growth with quiet prices (3.1%) and unemployment at 3.4%. The area's most solid market — and the one where the Observatory documents no cases.
To date the Observatory documents no verifiable cases in this country. It does not mean the phenomenon does not exist: it means we have found no cases that clear our verification bar. Representations aware of cases are invited to report them — every report enters the same verification path as every other entry.
Steady growth around 4% (2024 figure; 2025 not yet published), driven by tourism and construction — the two sectors where the Observatory's cases also concentrate.
Every case is documented by the Observatory with its sources; where an unproven allegation stands, the entry says so. The established fact is never blurred with suspicion.
Preliminary green light in January 2025; SPAK investigation opened and protests in 2025–2026.
Sources: Balkan Insight 2026 · Al Jazeera 2026
For the company — A mega tourism project with an open anti-corruption investigation: due diligence on partners and land titles for anyone operating in the area.
Inaugurated by Erdoğan on 10 October 2024; funded with roughly 30 million euros by Turkey's state religious authority, the Diyanet.
Sources: The Washington Times (AP) 2024 · Arab News 2024
For the company — Political context more than direct risk: Turkish influence grows through religious and military channels at once.
Slowing growth (1.5%) but prices under control: the network's most mature economy, and the most integrated with Italy.
To date the Observatory documents no verifiable cases in this country. It does not mean the phenomenon does not exist: it means we have found no cases that clear our verification bar. Representations aware of cases are invited to report them — every report enters the same verification path as every other entry.
Growing at 3.5% with double-digit unemployment (11.0%): available labour, in an area where elsewhere it is nowhere to be found.
To date the Observatory documents no verifiable cases in this country. It does not mean the phenomenon does not exist: it means we have found no cases that clear our verification bar. Representations aware of cases are invited to report them — every report enters the same verification path as every other entry.
The eight countries of the network's representations, with their numbers attached: click a country to open macro data and cases, and its card from there.
The interactive network map — one marker per country, with macro data and cases — is in the web version: limenpost.eu/en/osservatorio/est-europa
Macro data come from Eurostat (dataset and extraction date under each chart); the cases from the LIMEN Observatory, where every entry carries its sources and the established fact stays distinct from the allegation. Countries with no documented cases are marked as such. No figure is estimated: where the data is missing, it says "n/a".
This page is issue no. 1 of a half-yearly space curated by LIMEN for Confindustria Est Europa: every six months the numbers, readings and radar are redone. Representations can report cases from their own country: they enter verification under the same rules. Independent analysis: LIMEN answers for the content, the partner for distribution. Texts are AI-assisted and reviewed by a person.
Eurostat data extracted 17.09.2026 · next update March 2027